This page contains my research and commentary on the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. I am no expert on the formidable medical and public health challenges. I am knowledgeable about the economic response to crises. I believe that so far, we are doing far too little to save jobs and businesses. Here are my ideas and also some links to the ideas of others on how we can prevent this crisis causing long-lasting deep economic damage.
THE PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF RETROSPECTIVE PANDEMIC INSURANCE March 31st, 2020. I am uploading here today my views on the practical implementation of retrospective insurance to save every business and every job in the UK.
RETROSPECTIVE INSURANCE March 21st, 2020. A research paper here on SSRN that summarizes some of the economic challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic. This argues that the threat of lasting economic damage from business failure is substantial and that this can be prevented through ‘retrospective insurance’, framing government support as if businesses had taken out business interruption insurance which includes pandemic coverage (almost all business interruption policies exclude pandemics) can allow protection from a large reduction in expenditure of 10% of GDP with government support worth only 4% of GDP, of which less than 2% is additional to promises already made.
AN UNUSUAL KIND OF INSURANCE March 25th, 2020 . An article in The Conversation with a less tecnical statement of the argument for retrospective insurance
SOME GOOD NEWS ON COVID-19 March 28th, 2020. A self published article on medium.com with another analysis of the costs of retrospective insurance using US national accounting data. This finds as follows “Suppose there is a complete shut down of one third of the economy for six months — a much bigger financial impact than is currently anticipated … Then the overall cost [of protecting all businesses from failure] is 25.5%/ 3 = 8.4% of GDP” We have the resources to save every business and every job.